Archive for October, 2006

Money Market Funds vs. Bank Savings

Over the past few years, a handful of bank savings accounts, particularly internet banks like ING Direct and HSBC Direct, have at times had a yield advantage over money market mutual funds. These offerings have attracted a lot of money and have lured a lot of people into believing that they are better off in these accounts. Don’t believe it.

Historically, money market mutual funds have provided more liquidity (no transaction limits), almost twice as much yield, and dare I say even more safety than bank deposits. Since the first money fund (Reserve Fund) was created in 1971, money market funds have provided investors with more interest income than bank savings accounts have provided since the beginning of time. Yield income likely totals around $500 billion, while banks during the period money funds were in existence like paid around $300 billion.

So now some Johnny-come-lately outfits show up saying their lack of “bricks-and-mortar” gives them a cost advantage over traditional banks? I say bull. These banks are merely trying to gain assets fast, and then trying to hope that investors don’t notice when they put the screws to their savers, like every bank in the history of civilization has done. Note ING Direct, which had been the market leader in 2003 and 2006, now paying a paltry 4.4%. This would rank it well below even the handful of money market funds that pay a full percentage point in expenses. So the highest rate becomes the lowest….

Over their history, only one money market fund has ever given investors less than their dollar back (“broken the buck”). In 1994, the institutions-only fund Community Bankers U.S. Government Money Market Fund, liquidated for $0.94 cents, and investors eventually got $0.02 more back after all the lawsuits, so in the worst disaster in history caused money fund investors to lose 4 cents on the dollar. And had they been in the fund the year prior to the blowup, they would have earned about 6 cents a dollar in income! All other events have seen investors “bailed out” by fund companies, though these incidents are few and far between, and were problems totalling in the millions not billions.

Banks, on the other hand, have taken taxpayers, and in some cases depositors, for trillions. I would guess that all the bank problems we’ve had over time have cost $500 billion (with a ‘b’) vs. problems with money funds, which likely total $250 million (just over a basis point, or 0.0001 of the current $2 trillion). All but $4 million of this was covered by fund companies.

So perhaps you might find a higher yielding option among banks temporarily, but historically money funds have been the better deal. You’d rather have the market deciding what rate you get than a banker. Eventually, it comes down to a choice between you earning the extra dollar or the banker earning the extra dollar; the banker usually wins.

Thoughts on AFP

What a party! The AFP, Association of Financial Professionals, annual conference just ended in Las Vegas, Nev., and boy was it fun for those that didn’t lose too much money. Seeing a room with almost every major money market mutual fund provider — all preaching safety, liquidity, and stability ahead of yield – next door to several casinos was a first for me. It definitely put things in perspective….

Highlights of the 2006 conference, for me, and perhaps for those in the money market or cash investment world, included:

1) The sheer number of money fund providers (30+) and portals (12) exhibiting or in attendance. There likely wasn’t a treasurer in the place that didn’t get asked whether they use money funds.

2)  Vegas. Good parties and boring industries go together like neon lights and huge hotel buildings. Wachovia/Evergreen’s Tao bash was outrageous; Northern’s Tryst event was supposedly off the hook; and Barclay’s Hard Rock event was just getting going when I had to get out of there….

3) Seeing old friends. Money funds have always been such a niche business that “everybody knows everybody”. It was great to see so many people! (See the November Money Fund Intelligence for a serious discussion of some of the discussion topics.)

Regards,

Pete Crane

October 2006 Money Fund Intelligence

The October issue of Money Fund Intelligence is out! In addition to performance stats on 475 funds and the Crane Money Fund Indexes, MFI an Outlook for 2007, the results of our reader “mini-survey”, a story on Portals & Enhanced Cash, a profile of Morgan Stanley Institutional Liquidity, and, of course, our comprehensive monthly News and Analyses of the money fund business. E-mail pete@cranedata.us for a copy or call 1-508-439-4419.

Assets have increased by 9% year-to-date and are on pace for 12% gains in ‘06; money funds stand just 2% below their all-time record of $2.3 trillion. In the issue, Crane Data Predicts 15% Growth for Money Funds in 2007. I expect a banner year based on the following: historically high nominal and real returns; the psychological and practical impact of 5% rates; the significant advantage money fund yields hold over bank savings and “sweep” products; the continued attractiveness of “cash” vs. stocks, bonds, and alternative “hedge” assets; and, an expected surge in institutional money fund inflows due to the flat- to-falling rate environment.

The October MFI also polled our readership on the following questions:

1) In 2007, do you expect money fund assets to grow by?

a) 0% b) 5% c) 10% d) 15% e) 20% f) other

(AVERAGE of 18 responses to date: 9.1% asset growth in ‘07)

2) Where do you expect money fund yields (currently at 5.0%) to be at year end 2007?

(Approximately Fed funds minus .25%)

a) 4.0% b) 4.5% c) 5.0% d) 5.5% e) 6.0% f) 3.5% g) other

(AVERAGE of 17 RESPONSES TO DATE: 4.68% Money Fund Index year end ‘07)

3) What do you think will be the most important issue for money funds in 2007?

a) “Bankerage” b) Portals c) Inflows d) Blowups e) Consolidation f) Enhanced Cash

g) A New Cash Competitor h) Other

(TOP RESPONSES TO DATE: e) 33%, b) 28%, c) 17%, f) 11%, g) 11%, d) 6%)

Please post your responses and I’ll add to the tally!

PeteC